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Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) hit a record high of Rs 2,782.15 on the BSE, after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to Rs 3,253, citing the company is best positioned to capitalise on the opportunity as energy security takes centrestage and green hydrogen gains attention.

“RIL remains well funded for new energy investments, and unlike in past cycles will see net debt remaining rangebound,” observed the foreign brokerage in a note. The brokerage expects up to a 10% boost to the company’s net asset value in anticipation of quicker hydrogen monetisation. With Thursday’s gain of 2.5%, the stock has added 9.4% during the last three sessions against the marginal gain of 1.3% clocked by the benchmark Sensex during the same period. The market capitalisation of the company stood at $247 billion as of Thursday’s close, which is about 16.2% of the Sensex’ market capitalisation.

The conglomerate’s revenues for the current year are expected to come in at close to Rs 7.5 trillion, a big jump over Rs 4.66 trillion reported in FY22. The operating profits are estimated to nudge Rs 1.5 trillion while the net profits could top Rs 60,000 crore compared with FY22’s Rs 49,100 crore.

Goldman Sachs wrote that refining tailwinds should sustain given the improved supply, demand from closures and from jet fuel, lower Chinese exports, low inventory and also supply disruption. “We forecast GRM to improve from $9.0/bbl in FY22E to $14.3/11.0 per bbl in FY23/24E at a premium to industry benchmark GRM,” analyst at the firm observed.

Shares of RIL have gained 17.5% so far in 2022 against the Sensex’s fall of 0.6. The stock has generated positive returns every year since 2015. Veteran investor Deven Choksey believes investors are accumulating the RIL stock ahead of the Q4FY22 quarterly results in anticipation of good set of numbers and some corporate announcements.

Of the 40 analysts who track RIL on Bloomberg, 65% has a “buy” rating on the stock. While 10 suggest to “hold” the stock, remaining 4 had a “sell” recommendation on the stock.



Author: Howard Caldwell